Former Israeli opposition leader Shaul Mofaz's surprise entry into Israel's ruling coalition this week appears unlikely to trigger a major shift in Israeli policy on Iran's nuclear program.
The leader of Israel's centrist Kadima party was sworn in as Israeli vice premier on Wednesday, a day after agreeing to join Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist coalition in a unity government.
Just before the swearing in, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, approved the unity deal between Mofaz's Kadima and Netanyahu's Likud party by a vote of 71 to 23.
Shared view on a Nuclear-armed Iran
Mofaz, a 63-year-old former Israeli military chief and defense minister, previously has joined Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders in warning that a nuclear-armed Iran would be a threat to Israel's existence.
Iranian leaders frequently have called for destruction of the Jewish state. But, Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful.
In a Jerusalem Post interview last month, Iranian-born Mofaz said that "allowing Iran to obtain even a civilian nuclear capability would change the balance of power in the Middle East," adding that "Israel cannot accept this."
He also said that if Israel sees Iran "getting closer to a military nuclear capability" and the United States failing to stop such progress, he will be "the first to support Israel taking action" against Iranian nuclear sites.
Netanyahu's government has long warned that military action is an option to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Boosting Netanyahu's touch stance
London-based Middle East expert Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House said Mofaz's decision to join such a hawkish coalition indicates that the Kadima chief would approve any decision to strike Iran.
Mekelberg said Mofaz's security credentials also lend credibility to Netanyahu's tough Iran stance.
"Bringing Mofaz into the government [allows the prime minister to] say, 'here is another military man, [who] knows what should be done and knows what he is doing."
In another boost to Netanyahu, his expanded 94-seat coalition in the 120-member Knesset gives him a huge majority to support any possible confrontation with Iran.
But, Mofaz also told the Jerusalem Post that the Iranian "sword" is not yet on Israel's "neck," as he put it.
A more cautious approach on timing
Natan Sachs, an Israeli politics expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington,says that Mofaz has been "more cautious" than Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak about the timing of action against Iran.
Netanyahu and Barak repeatedly have warned the international community that time is running out for negotiations and sanctions to pressure Iran to stop enriching uranium, a key nuclear weapon ingredient.
Last month, when Israel's former internal security chief Yuval Diskin accused the two men of exaggerating the perceived Iranian threat and the effectiveness of a military strike, Mofaz said he took those criticisms seriously.
Sachs said Mofaz, then opposition leader, made the comment partly to score political points against the government. He said Mofaz also sent a message of skepticism about the urgency of military action.
Empasizing a different threat
Another sign of Mofaz's caution on Iran is his recent contention that the Iranian nuclear program is not Israel's biggest threat.
In the Jerusalem Post interview, the Kadima leader said Israel faces a greater danger of losing its Jewish majority if it has to absorb millions of Palestinian Arabs who do not get a state of their own.
Both Sachs and Chatham House expert Mekelberg said the new Israeli vice premier's overall impact on the government's Iran strategy is hard to determine because of his reputation for changing positions on major issues.
One example is Mofaz's agreement to join a Netanyahu-led coalition two months after using his Facebook page to declare that he would not join what he called a "bad and failed" government.
Uncertainty about key decision-making
An additional uncertainty in Mofaz's influence over Iran policy is his level of involvement in the decision-making process.
Under the Likud-Kadima agreement, Mofaz earns a position in an informal Israeli security cabinet that previously included eight senior members.
But Sachs said the Iran nuclear issue is so sensitive that just two members have been making most of the decisions: the prime minister and defense minister.
"It is too early to tell whether or not Mofaz will join the innermost circle of consultation between Mr. Netanyahu and Barak," Sachs said. "It very much depends on how Mr. Netanyahu views the partnership with Mofaz and how close he brings him into the discussions."
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