A Democratic Republic of Congo researcher says north Kivu residents are expressing concerns about a resumption of violence as the national army's imposed ceasefire expires Wednesday.
Fidel Basilemba, who is also a consultant for the Enough Project, a U.S.-based rights group, said it is unlikely residents, who fled the fighting between the national army and renegade soldiers formerly loyal to General Bosco Ntaganda, will return to their homes.
The Congolese army issued a ceasefire to allow the rebels to turn themselves in after they mutinied following complaints that they were mistreated in the army. But the renegade soldiers have so far refused to rejoin the army, despite Wednesday's deadline.
"When the ceasefire was announced, people were expecting the CNDP [rebel] mutineers to surrender. Instead they have morphed the CNDP into a new movement. It means instead of seeing things calming down, things might get worse," said Basilemba.
The rebels issued a statement saying they have formed a new movement they called M23. They also replaced Ntaganda with Colonel Sultani Makenga as the new leader.
The Hague-based International Criminal Court indicted Ntaganda after he was alleged to have committed war crimes of enlistment and conscription of children under the age of 15 and of using them to participate actively in hostilities in Ituri, from July 2002 until December 2003.
Basilemba said tension in the restive north Kivu province is palpable after the renegade soldiers refused to surrender.
"The concern is very high since we haven't seen any surrender from the CNDP. And what is more worrying in Goma is that Rwanda might intervene…because we have heard some statements from the Rwandan army spokesman who has been insinuating that the Congolese army must be assisted," continued Basilemba. "And if this is coming into the game that means things might be worse. We might be seeing again Rwanda coming in under these charges that the want to clamp down on the [rebels]."
Officials of the United Nations Mission in Congo (MONUSCO) say the group's peacekeeping troops are on high alert as the ceasefire ends Wednesday.
The Security Council tasked MONUSCO with protecting unarmed civilians from attacks from insurgent rebel groups in the country.
But Basilemba said north Kivu residents seem to lack confidence in the peacekeepers.
"Unfortunately, MONUSCO's civilian protection mandate has always been confusing…MONUSCO says it has been stepping in between the two parties, but then it reacts so late. Yes, people have been fleeing to MONUSCO's camps to get protection but…we have heard of people who have been killed in Walekale while MONUSCO presence was reported."
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